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Weekly global economic overview: June 24-28


Weekly global economic overview

Monday, June 24


On Monday, all eyes in Europe will be on Germany as the Ifo Institute releases its business sentiment index. This index is one of the most reliable indicators of the economic health of Germany, the continent’s largest economy. The Ifo Business Climate Index is based on approximately 9,000 monthly survey responses from firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling, and retailing. Respondents are asked to assess their current business situation and their expectations for the next six months.


The results are then aggregated into an index value. The Ifo index is a crucial piece of data because it can provide early signals of turning points in the economy. An uptick in the index suggests that businesses are optimistic about future economic conditions, while a decline could indicate potential economic troubles ahead. Given Germany's pivotal role in the European Union's economy, this index not only reflects German economic health but also provides insights into the broader Eurozone economic outlook.


Tuesday, June 25


Tuesday brings a wave of important economic data from Europe. Spain will release its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, providing a detailed picture of the country’s economic performance. The GDP data will reveal how the Spanish economy is faring in terms of growth, which is crucial for understanding the broader economic environment in Europe. Spain, being the fourth-largest economy in the Eurozone, plays a significant role in the overall economic health of the region. The data will include components such as consumer spending, business investment, government spending, and net exports, each offering insights into different segments of the economy.



On the same day, Sweden’s statistical office will publish the Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. The PPI is a key indicator of inflation at the wholesale level and can provide early signals about future consumer price inflation.


North America also has significant data releases on Tuesday. Canada’s statistical office will present inflation data for May. This data is crucial as it helps to gauge the cost of living and the purchasing power of consumers. High inflation rates can erode consumer purchasing power and savings, while deflation can indicate weak demand and economic stagnation.


In the United States, several important economic indicators will be released. The Conference Board will publish its Consumer Confidence Index, which measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. This index is based on a survey of 5,000 households and is an important indicator of consumer spending, which drives a significant portion of the US economy.


Additionally, the weekly fuel inventory data will be released, providing insights into supply and demand dynamics in the energy market. The house price index, which tracks changes in the value of residential properties, will also be published, giving a sense of trends in the housing market.



Wednesday, June 26


On Wednesday, attention in Europe will shift to Germany and France as they release their consumer confidence indices. These indices measure how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are regarding their expected financial situation, the general economic situation, unemployment, and their capability of saving. Consumer confidence is a key indicator because high confidence levels can lead to increased consumer spending, driving economic growth, while low confidence can signal economic troubles ahead.


The UK will also release important data on Wednesday, with the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) publishing its retail sales figures. The CBI retail sales data provides a snapshot of the performance of the retail sector, which is a significant component of the UK economy. This data can offer early insights into consumer spending trends and the overall health of the economy.


In the United States, several key reports will be released. Data on new home sales and mortgage approvals will provide insights into the housing market, which is a critical sector of the US economy. The weekly crude oil inventory report will also be published, offering a snapshot of supply and demand dynamics in the energy market.



Australia will also release its latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which measures changes in the price level of a basket of consumer goods and services. The CPI is a key indicator of inflation and provides insights into the cost of living and purchasing power of consumers.


Thursday, June 27


Thursday will be a busy day for economic data in Europe. The Czech central bank is expected to announce a cut in interest rates. This decision is likely in response to economic conditions that necessitate a monetary policy adjustment to stimulate growth. Interest rate cuts can make borrowing cheaper, encouraging investment andspending.


The Swedish Riksbank will also make a decision on the reference interest rate. While analysts do not anticipate any changes, the announcement will be closely watched for any indications of future policy moves. Interest rates are a primary tool for central banks to control inflation and influence economic activity.


Spain will release retail sales data, providing insights into consumer spending trends in the country. Italy will publish its Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation reading, offering an early indicator of inflationary pressures at the wholesale level.



The European Commission will release a series of sentiment indices, including those for producers, consumers, the services sector, and the industrial sector. These indices provide a comprehensive overview of economic sentiment across different sectors and can offer early signals of economic turning points.


In the UK, a key event will be a public address by the Governor of the Bank of England. This speech will be particularly important for forex traders, as it could provide insights into future monetary policy moves and economic conditions.


The Turkish central bank will decide on interest rates, a critical decision given the country’s current inflation rate, which exceeds 75% year-on-year. High inflation has significant economic consequences, eroding purchasing power and savings.


In the United States, several important economic indicators will be released. Preliminary readings on durable goods orders will provide insights into business investment. The weekly Labor Department report on jobless claims will offer a snapshot of labor market conditions. The annualized GDP reading will provide a comprehensive measure of economic performance, while the PCE Core inflation measure, preferred by the Federal Reserve, will offer insights into underlying inflation trends.


Political events will also be significant, with the outcome of the debate between US presidential candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump on CNN potentially influencing market sentiment and political dynamics.



Friday, June 28


Friday will see a flurry of economic data from Europe. Preliminary inflation readings will be released from France, Spain, and Italy, providing early insights into price trends in these key economies. Final GDP growth data for the first quarter will be published by the Czech Republic and the UK, offering a detailed look at economic performance in these countries.


Retail sales data will be released from Germany, Sweden, and Norway, providing a snapshot of consumer spending trends in these countries. Retail sales are a key indicator of economic health, as they reflect consumer confidence and spending power.


The Swiss KOF Institute will release its economic barometer, which indicates potential economic performance over the next six months. This index is closely watched as it can provide early signals of turning points in the Swiss economy.


In the United States, the focus will be on the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for May. This index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation and provides insights into underlying inflation trends.



Japan will release preliminary industrial production data, offering insights into the performance of the country’s manufacturing sector. Industrial production is a key indicator of economic health, reflecting the output of factories, mines, and utilities.


In Iran, the first round of presidential elections will take place. The outcome of these elections could have significant implications for the country’s political and economic future, as well as for regional stability.



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22.06.2024



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