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Weekly economic reports: Global PMI, inflation, employment, and central bank decisions


Weekly economic reports

(London time)

Monday, June 3


We will start the new month with the release of a series of May PMI reports, providing a comprehensive look at manufacturing activities across the globe. These reports are crucial as they offer insights into the economic health of various countries. Specifically, data will be released from Australia, Japan, China, India, Sweden, Spain, Switzerland, Italy, France, Germany, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the United States. These reports are expected to reflect the latest trends and challenges in the manufacturing sector, potentially influencing market expectations and economic policies.


At the end of the day, attention will shift to the United States, where the May ISM Manufacturing Index will be published. This index is a key indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector in the U.S. Additionally, the April statistics on construction spending will be released, providing further insight into the economic activity and investment trends in the U.S. construction industry. These reports combined will offer a detailed picture of the industrial and construction landscape at the start of the summer season.


Tuesday, June 4


On Tuesday, the spotlight will be on Switzerland, which will present its Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for May. This report is significant as it measures changes in the price level of a market basket of consumer goods and services, reflecting the cost of living and inflationary pressures in Switzerland. Additionally, Germany will release its unemployment rate for May, offering insights into the labor market conditions in Europe’s largest economy.



From the United States, two important sets of data will be released. First, the April factory orders report will provide information on new orders placed with domestic manufacturers, which is a critical indicator of future manufacturing activity. Second, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will reveal the number of job vacancies for April, offering a detailed view of labor demand and workforce dynamics in the U.S. economy. These reports will be closely watched by investors and policymakers for signs of economic strength or weakness.


Wednesday, June 5


Wednesday will bring a slew of PMI data for the services sector from various countries, offering a broad view of global economic activity in this critical sector. The focus will particularly be on the Eurozone and the United States, as these regions' reports are expected to significantly influence market sentiments and economic forecasts. At 11:00 AM, Eurostat will release the April producer price index (PPI) for Eurozone countries, which measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. This data is crucial for understanding inflationary pressures within the industrial sector.


At 13:15, the ADP National Employment Report will be published, measuring the change in private sector employment in the United States for May. This report is a key indicator of labor market health and is often seen as a precursor to the official employment report released by the government. Later in the day, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index will be released, providing insights into the performance of the services sector, which constitutes a significant portion of the U.S. economy. Additionally, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release data on fuel inventories in the U.S., which is critical for understanding supply and demand dynamics in the oil market and its impact on global energy prices.



Thursday, June 6


On Thursday, we will gain insight into the deeply troubled German industrial sector with the release of April statistics for factory orders. These statistics are vital as they reflect the level of demand for German manufactured goods, providing an indicator of future production levels. Meanwhile, the Czech Republic and Spain will also release their industrial production data for April, offering a broader view of manufacturing activity within the Eurozone.


A significant report on April retail sales in the Eurozone will also be published, shedding light on consumer spending patterns and economic health in the region. However, the most anticipated event of the week will be the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy announcement. Analysts widely expect the ECB to announce the first interest rate cut of the current cycle, reducing the refinancing rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%. This move is aimed at stimulating economic activity amid concerns of slowing growth and low inflation. The ECB President Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference at 13:45 to elaborate on the decision and address questions.



In the United States, several key reports will be released, including the April trade balance, which details the difference between the value of goods and services the country exports and imports. The weekly jobless claims report will provide an update on the number of people filing for unemployment benefits, offering a timely gauge of labor market conditions. Additionally, reports on productivity and unit labor costs for the first quarter will be published, providing insights into economic efficiency and cost pressures within the U.S. economy.


Friday, June 7


Friday morning is expected to begin with the release of China’s trade balance for May, providing critical insights into the trade dynamics of the world’s second-largest economy. This data will be closely watched for indications of global trade patterns and economic health. Additionally, Germany will release its industrial production data for April, offering further insights into the performance of its manufacturing sector.


At 8:00 AM, the head of the Bundesbank will give a public speech, which could provide additional context on monetary policy and economic conditions in Germany and the broader Eurozone. Later in the day, final data on Eurozone GDP for the first quarter will be published, providing a comprehensive view of economic growth in the region.



Traditionally, the first Friday of the month features the release of the U.S. monthly labor market report, which includes key metrics such as non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings. This report is a crucial indicator of economic health and labor market conditions in the U.S. At the same time, similar labor market data for Canada will be released, providing a comparative perspective on North American labor markets. The day will conclude with the publication of data on consumer credit in the United States, offering insights into borrowing and spending behaviors of American consumers.


01.06.2024



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