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Week ahead: Global economic outlook from March 18 to 22

economic calendar for upcoming week, forex trading

Monday, March 18

On this day, attention will be focused on the outcome of the presidential elections in Russia. Although it's widely anticipated that there will be no surprises in terms of the winner, this event is nonetheless important on a global scale. However, it's expected that the election results will not majorly influence the global financial markets.

Meanwhile, significant economic data from China will be released, providing insights into industrial production, retail sales, and urban investments. This data is critical as it gives an indication of the current state of China's economy, which has been showing signs of slowing down. Analysts are particularly keen on understanding the trajectory of the world's second-largest economy, as it has broad implications for global economic health.

Tuesday, March 19

A key event is the decision of the Bank of Japan regarding its monetary policy. Since 2016, the Bank of Japan has been notable for its negative interest rates and substantial asset purchase program. This unconventional approach, often referred to as "quantitative easing" or "money printing," is under scrutiny. There are rumors and speculations that the Bank of Japan might start to pull back from these extreme measures, signaling a significant shift in policy.

Simultaneously, the Reserve Bank of Australia will make its decision on interest rates, expected to remain steady at 4.35%. These decisions by major central banks are crucial as they influence global capital flows and currency valuations. Furthermore, the German financial sector's ZEW Index, a barometer for the economic sentiment in Europe's largest economy, is due to be released.

The index's performance, expected to be positively solid, presents a stark contrast to the overall challenging economic environment in Germany. Lastly, Canadian CPI inflation data and U.S. residential construction figures for February will be released, offering further insights into the economic health of North America.

Wednesday, March 20

Japan observes a public holiday, leading to a closure of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, which could result in lower trading volumes and volatility in Asian markets. In Europe, the focus shifts to the Czech National Bank, which is likely to cut interest rates. Despite the high interest rate environment in the Czech Republic (6.25%), it's speculated that there might be a move to reduce these rates, especially considering the CPI inflation aligning with the CNB's target.

This anticipated decision is indicative of broader economic trends and monetary policies in the region. In contrast, no change is expected from the People's Bank of China in its monetary policy despite ongoing economic challenges. The day will also bring important inflation statistics from the UK and Germany, both CPI and PPI, which are crucial indicators of economic health and inflationary pressures in these major European economies.

Additionally, a public speech by Christine Lagarde, head of the ECB, is scheduled. There's market speculation about potential interest rate cuts in the Eurozone, anticipated to occur around June or July, which is a topic of interest for investors and policymakers alike.

Thursday, March 21

This day is earmarked as the PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) day, with preliminary March PMI data being released from several major economies including France, Germany, the entire eurozone, the UK, and the USA. PMI is a crucial indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector and the broader economy, offering insights into business conditions.

The day is further significant due to a series of announcements from various central banks, including the Swiss National Bank, Norges Bank, the Central Bank of Turkey, and the Bank of England, regarding their respective interest rates. These decisions are closely monitored as they have direct implications on their respective economies and can influence global financial markets.

Additionally, from the United States, we can expect a range of economic reports including the Philadelphia economic situation, weekly unemployment benefits, leading indicators by the Conference Board, and statistics on the sale of used homes, each providing a different perspective on the state of the U.S. economy.

Friday, March 22

The day begins with a focus on Japan's CPI inflation data, which has consistently been above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for several months. This is an important indicator of the Japanese economy's inflationary trends and could have implications for future monetary policy.

Following this, Germany's Ifo Index for March, a key indicator of business sentiment in the country's economy, will be released. Additionally, an important speech by Joachim Nagel, the head of the Bundesbank, is scheduled, which might provide insights into the monetary policy and economic outlook of Germany.



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