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USD/CAD analysis: Navigating downward pressure and selling opportunities, January 4, 2024

Amidst the ongoing dynamics of the USD/CAD pair, the downward pressure on the exchange rate has sparked increased interest among traders looking to capitalize on potential selling opportunities. The decline was particularly pronounced following the failure to sustain the bullish momentum beyond the 1.3370 level.

usdcad daily chart
USD/CAD daily chart, 04.01.2024

usdcad weekly chart
USD/CAD weekly chart, 04.01.2024

As market participants assess the unfolding scenario, the Loonie assets experienced a notable devaluation, descending to approximately 1.3320. This downward movement aligned with a corrective phase in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) subsequent to the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes. The minutes, revealing the likelihood of interest rate cuts in 2023, intensified the bearish sentiment surrounding the USD/CAD pair.

The downtrend is also reflected in the struggle of the USD/CAD pair to ascend beyond the critical 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, positioned at 1.3350. Traders eyeing selling opportunities are closely monitoring this juncture, as a decisive breach could signify a continuation of the bearish trend. The 20-period exponential moving average (EMA), currently hovering around 1.3306, adds an additional layer of consideration for sellers, potentially serving as an intermediate level of support that bears need to overcome for sustained downward momentum.

Furthermore, the shift in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) towards the 40.00-80.00 trajectory indicates that the initial bearish sentiment has weakened. However, traders eyeing selling positions are vigilant for signs of a potential reversal or a renewed bout of selling interest. The RSI's departure from the oversold territory (below 30) suggests a possibility of a more balanced market sentiment, prompting caution among sellers.

For traders adopting a sell-side strategy, closely monitoring the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and the 20-period EMA becomes crucial. A successful breach of these levels might open the door for further declines, with potential targets being the recent low on December 28 at 1.3180. A sustained downward movement beyond this point could expose the Loonie assets to the minimum observed on July 25, around 1.3150, and subsequently, the minimum recorded on July 13, near 1.3193.

It is essential for sellers to stay attuned to broader economic indicators, including employment data and any shifts in the geopolitical landscape, as these factors could influence market sentiment and impact the viability of selling positions. Trading decisions should be made judiciously, considering both technical and fundamental aspects to navigate the evolving landscape of the USD/CAD pair.


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