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Upcoming economic events: May 20-24


Upcoming economic events: May 20-24

(London time)


Monday, May 20


On Monday night, the People's Bank of China will announce its decision regarding interest rates. This decision will particularly affect the one-year loan prime rate, which is currently set at 3.45% and has been maintained at this level since July. Financial markets are keenly observing whether the central bank will keep this rate unchanged or introduce any adjustments. In addition to the one-year rate, there is also significant attention on the five-year reference rate for mortgage loans, which currently stands at 3.95%. The expectation is that this rate will also remain unchanged. These decisions are crucial as they influence borrowing costs and economic activity in China, impacting both domestic and international markets.


Aside from this, the macroeconomic calendar for Monday is relatively light, with no major economic data releases expected. This allows investors and analysts to primarily focus on the outcome of the interest rate decision from China.



Tuesday, May 21


On Tuesday, the economic calendar remains relatively sparse, with no major "heavyweight" economic reports scheduled. However, the Eurozone will release data on its foreign trade balance, though the figures pertain to March rather than more recent months. This data will provide insights into the trade dynamics within the Eurozone, including export and import activities.


Meanwhile, for April, we will receive the Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data from Germany, which measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Additionally, Canada will release its Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which tracks the changes in the price level of a basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households.


Moreover, Tuesday will feature important speeches from several central bank leaders. The heads of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank (ECB) will deliver speeches that could provide valuable insights into their monetary policy outlooks and economic assessments. Several members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) are also scheduled to speak, and their remarks will be closely analyzed for any indications of future US monetary policy moves.


Wednesday, May 22


Wednesday will commence with a significant announcement from New Zealand regarding its interest rates. The decision by New Zealand's monetary authorities will be closely monitored as it impacts the country's economic conditions and financial markets. In addition, there will be news from Japan regarding its trade balance, providing insights into the country's export and import activities and overall economic health.



The European morning will be particularly focused on inflation data from the United Kingdom. Inflation is a critical economic indicator, and the latest figures will shed light on price stability and cost-of-living changes in the UK. Investors and policymakers will scrutinize these numbers to gauge the inflationary pressures in the economy.


In the US, all eyes will be on Nvidia as it releases its financial report after the stock market session. Nvidia has been one of the standout companies in the tech sector over the past year, with its stock price increasing by 90% this year alone. However, despite this significant rise, the stock has been trading relatively flat since its last earnings report at the end of February. Nvidia's performance and future outlook will be of great interest to investors and analysts, particularly in the context of the broader tech industry's trends.


Thursday, May 23


Thursday is set to be a pivotal day for global economic data, particularly with the release of preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures. These PMIs are essential economic indicators derived from monthly surveys of private sector companies, providing insights into the prevailing economic conditions. The schedule includes PMI releases for several major economies: Australia at 02:00, Japan at 3:30, France at 10:15, Germany at 10:30, the Eurozone at 11:00, the United Kingdom at 11:30, and the United States at 16:45. These readings will give a timely snapshot of economic activity in manufacturing and services sectors across these regions, offering a forward-looking view of economic health.



For those who follow global monetary policy closely, Thursday also brings significant events with decisions from the central banks of Turkey and Chile. These announcements will provide insights into the monetary policy directions of these countries, impacting their financial markets and economic conditions.


Friday, May 24


Friday will feature several critical economic reports from around the world. In Japan, the latest inflation data will be released, offering a view of the price changes and cost of living in the country. Additionally, Germany will announce its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the first quarter, presenting the first revision of preliminary data released on April 30. The initial report indicated a quarterly growth of 0.2% and a year-on-year decline of 0.9% (seasonally adjusted). These figures are crucial for understanding the economic trajectory of Germany, Europe's largest economy.


The UK will report on its retail sales, providing insights into consumer spending and economic activity.



In the afternoon, several important data releases will come from the United States. The University of Michigan will publish its Index of Consumer Sentiment, a key indicator of consumer confidence and economic expectations. Additionally, data on durable goods orders will be released, reflecting new orders placed with manufacturers for delivery of hard goods. Finally, there will be a statement on inflation expectations, providing insights into future price changes anticipated by businesses and consumers. These reports will be closely watched as they provide critical insights into the economic health and future outlook of the US economy.


18.05.2024



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