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The Bank fo England holds steady at 5.25%: Inflation dynamics, speculation, and potential rate cuts in focus


BoE: Inflation dynamics, speculation, and potential rate cuts  in focus

The Bank of England (BoE) has announced that the primary interest rate in the United Kingdom will remain at 5.25%, a decision in line with the expectations of financial analysts.


This decision was conveyed by Andrew Bailey, the President of the Bank of England, who, in response to calls for a reduction in interest rates, emphasized the need for more evidence that inflation will stabilize around the targeted 2%.


There was no reduction in interest rates during the Bank of England's latest meeting. However, speculations have already begun circulating about potential adjustments later in 2024, possibly as early as spring.



While inflation in the United Kingdom has been on a gradual decline in recent months, it continues to hover above the Bank of England's 2% target. In its most recent update, the BoE projected a temporary dip in inflation below 2% by the summer of 2024. It is essential to note that the Bank of England faced criticism for perceived sluggishness in addressing inflation in 2022 when it reached double digits.


Consequently, the central bank is likely to exercise caution and ensure that the risk of a resurgence in high inflation is mitigated before considering a reduction in interest rates.


In December, inflation unexpectedly rose to 4% from 3.9% in November, primarily driven by increased prices of tobacco and alcohol. However, the overall trend has been downward since the peak in October 2022, which saw inflation reach 11.1%.



Notably, Goldman Sachs, a major player in investment banking, anticipates that the Bank of England will commence lowering the base interest rate from 5.25% starting in May. Some economists go even further, predicting that the interest rate might drop to 3% by the close of 2024.


The Bank of England is likely to adjust its inflation forecasts for the current year downward to reflect weaker inflationary pressures. Despite this, caution persists regarding the outlook for the labor market and wage growth. Financial markets have already factored in potential rate cuts, with expectations that these adjustments might commence as early as May.


Nevertheless, the Bank of England is expected to remain circumspect about reducing interest rates, considering the diverse economic risks at play.



Forecasts indicate that energy prices will play a pivotal role in influencing inflation levels throughout 2024. Lindsay James, an investment strategist at Quilter Investors, highlights the current geopolitical climate and potential shocks in the energy market as factors contributing to the uncertainty, suggesting that inflation may remain unstable.


James pointed out, "The Bank of England's view that inflation may not stay at 2% reflects the ongoing risk associated with energy supplies, which depends not only on changes in US gas export policy but also on shipping companies' ability to ensure deliveries, especially through the Red Sea."


Despite the Bank of England's decision, the British pound exhibited no significant reaction. In recent times, the strength of the GBP can be attributed, in part, to expectations that the Bank of England will adopt a more cautious approach compared to other major central banks such as the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB).


01.02.2024



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