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MicroStrategy's rollercoaster: Stock plunges as Bitcoin halving looms! Are shares now a steal or still overvalued?


MicroStrategy's rollercoaster, financial news

MicroStrategy's stock, which has historically been closely linked to Bitcoin, is currently undergoing a challenging period. This week marks yet another downturn, with a significant 19% drop just before the fourth halving of Bitcoin—an event anticipated to affect the cryptocurrency’s supply and, potentially, its value.


Notably, this sharp decline comes shortly after the stock achieved an all-time high of $1999.99 on March 27. However, the recent losses have been substantial, erasing a major portion of the gains made over the month, highlighting the volatile nature of investments so closely tied to the cryptocurrency market.


In the second quarter of this year, MicroStrategy's stock has seen a steep decline, dropping by 30%. Despite this significant quarterly loss, the stock has actually increased by 76% since the beginning of the year, demonstrating a strong recovery in earlier months. As of April 18, the shares closed at $1208.16. This represents a large discount for those who missed earlier opportunities to buy at lower prices. However, macroeconomic factors and trends in price charts suggest that the current downturn in stock prices might continue, indicating that investors might see further losses.



MicroStrategy has made a substantial commitment to Bitcoin, aligning much of its asset management strategy with the fluctuations of the cryptocurrency's price. Since mid-February, this correlation has become even more evident, as significant movements in Bitcoin’s price have had a direct impact on MicroStrategy’s stock performance.


The trend suggests a straightforward relationship: as Bitcoin prices fall, so too do MicroStrategy's shares. This pattern underscores the risks inherent in tying company assets so closely to the performance of a highly volatile asset like Bitcoin.


Between March 27 and April 18, Bitcoin experienced a decline of 13%, falling from $71,700 to $62,400. During the same timeframe, MicroStrategy's stock value plunged by 40%, a loss significantly greater than that of Bitcoin itself. This disproportionate decline highlights the heightened sensitivity of MicroStrategy's stock to changes in Bitcoin prices.



Presently, the market sentiment is bearish, with stock prices falling below both the 10-day and 20-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA). If this downward trend continues, the next technical target for the stock could be the 100-day SMA, which stands around $896. This scenario may present a buying opportunity for investors bullish on the company’s long-term prospects, particularly those who missed out on previous dips.


The upcoming Bitcoin halving is another significant factor that could influence market dynamics. Halvings reduce the reward for mining new blocks of Bitcoin by half, which historically has led to increased volatility and price increases as supply diminishes. This event might not only affect Bitcoin's price but also have a cascading effect on MicroStrategy's stock, especially if it triggers increased selling pressure in the Bitcoin market. The company's stock charts might experience additional fluctuations, reflecting the broader uncertainties in the cryptocurrency sector.



MicroStrategy’s strategic investment in Bitcoin has been bold and substantial. As of now, the company holds 214,246 BTC, valued at over $13 billion. These holdings were acquired through the issuance of company bonds, a move that underpins the firm's aggressive bet on Bitcoin's future. This strategy not only underscores MicroStrategy's commitment to Bitcoin but also highlights the risks and potential rewards associated with such a large-scale investment in cryptocurrency.


Some market analysts, such as those from Kerrisdale Capital, have expressed skepticism about the valuation of MicroStrategy's shares. They argue that the shares are overvalued, given their dependency on Bitcoin's market performance. Kerrisdale Capital recently stated that they support Bitcoin but are bearish on MicroStrategy's stock, suggesting that the company's current stock value does not reflect the underlying value of the digital asset. They estimate the fair value of MSTR shares to be between $700 and $800, aligning closely with the pessimistic price target of the 100-day SMA.



Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy's co-founder and CEO, has been a prominent advocate for Bitcoin, positioning his company as the largest corporate holder of the cryptocurrency globally. Starting in 2020, Saylor's strategic decisions have pivoted MicroStrategy towards significant investments in Bitcoin, continuing to increase holdings regardless of market conditions.


The company's aggressive acquisition strategy is based on the belief that Bitcoin represents the superior long-term store of value, potentially rivaling the market capitalization of physical gold, which is estimated at around $13 trillion. This vision frames Bitcoin not just as a digital asset but as a foundational investment for the future financial landscape.


20.04.2024



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