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Global financial data and policy decisions - Week of April 8-12


economic calendar for upcoming week, forex trading

(London time)


Monday, April 8th


Before European markets open, key financial data will be released, including Japan's balance of payments and Germany's trade balance for February. These are crucial economic indicators; Japan's balance of payments reflects its transactions with the rest of the world and can influence the Yen's value, while Germany's trade balance is a significant measure of its economic health, particularly given its export-driven economy.


At 7:00, Destatis, the German Federal Statistical Office, will release figures on Germany's industrial production for February. Given the recent decline in new orders, the anticipation is that these figures might show a downturn, reflecting broader economic challenges such as global trade tensions or internal European market issues.


Tuesday, April 9th


This day appears to have a relatively uneventful macroeconomic schedule. However, given the current volatile state of the fuel markets, a report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on U.S. fuel inventories, to be released at 21:40, could be of interest. The API report can give insights into the demand and supply balance of fuel in the U.S., which can have implications for global oil prices and energy stocks.



Wednesday, April 10th


In South Korea, citizens will participate in a pivotal democratic process by voting for their new parliament. This election is significant as it could affect the country's future policies and international relations. Meanwhile, in the economic sphere, China is expected to release important financial statistics such as new loans and M2 money supply for March.


However, these reports often come later than scheduled, adding uncertainty to market predictions. At 3:00 London time, a crucial decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand regarding interest rates will be made, with the general expectation being that there will be no change from the current rate of 5.50%. The Bank of Japan's head's public appearance at 7:00 is also significant, as it might impact the dollar-yen exchange rate, a key indicator in forex markets.


Thursday, April 11th


Early in the morning, important inflation data from China will be released, including the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI). This data will offer insights into China's economic health, particularly in the context of recent mild CPI deflation, driven mainly by falling pork prices - an important aspect in China's consumer market. The European Central Bank's (ECB) decision is a critical event of the day.



Although no change in interest rates is expected, any signals from President Christine Lagarde about future monetary policy, especially regarding rate cuts, will be closely monitored by markets, as they can significantly impact European economic conditions and investor sentiment. The market is particularly focused on whether a rate cut might occur in June.


Friday, April 12th


This day brings a series of CPI inflation data from various European countries including Sweden, Germany (final reading), France, and Spain, offering a comprehensive view of the inflationary landscape across the eurozone. This is particularly important as these figures provide an indication of whether inflation is aligning with the ECB's target, influencing future monetary policy decisions.



In the U.S., the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index for April will be a key indicator of consumer confidence, which is a crucial driver of economic activity. Additionally, the financial results from major American banks like Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase, and Wells Fargo, traditionally marking the beginning of the earnings season on Wall Street, will be closely watched. These results can set the tone for the market's expectations and sentiment towards the banking sector and broader economic conditions.


06.04.2024



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