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Global economic outlook: Key financial events and decisions from April 22-26


economic calendar for upcoming week

Monday, April 22


On this date, attention turns to the People's Bank of China, which is likely to keep its interest rates stable at current levels. Specifically, the rates expected to be maintained are 3.95% for the five-year lending rate and 3.45% for the one-year rate. Such a decision reflects the bank's ongoing policy stance in the context of the broader economic conditions within the country, indicating either a satisfactory level of economic stability or a wait-and-see approach in the face of uncertain economic factors.


Tuesday, April 23


This day marks a significant moment in the global economic calendar with the publication of preliminary PMI readings for April, widely observed as an indicator of economic health in the manufacturing and services sectors. These insights into the industrial sector's performance will emerge sequentially across various time zones, starting with Australia early in the morning and followed by Japan, France, Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, and finally the USA. Simultaneous releases will also cover PMI data for the services sector in both Europe and the USA, providing a comprehensive snapshot of economic activity.



On the same day, the United States will release data on new home sales and the Richmond manufacturing index. Additionally, late in the evening, a report on commercial fuel inventories will provide insights into energy consumption and stockpile levels, which are critical for understanding sector-specific economic conditions.


Wednesday, April 24


The day begins in the early hours with the release of Australia's CPI for March, a crucial indicator of inflation that has implications for policy decisions and economic assessments. Mid-morning, the focus shifts to Germany with the publication of the Ifo index, a barometer of business sentiment that is closely monitored for signs of economic optimism or pessimism among German business leaders. Later in the day, preliminary statistics on orders for durable goods in March from the USA will be announced, followed by the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) report on oil and finished fuel inventories, which is key for understanding energy market dynamics.



Thursday, April 25


The central focus will be on the Central Bank of Turkey’s policy decision, which is highly anticipated following last month's unexpected interest rate hike to 50%. This decision will be particularly scrutinized as it may indicate future economic directions in response to domestic and global economic pressures. Later in the afternoon, the United States will release its preliminary GDP figures for the first quarter, providing a critical measure of the country’s economic health. This is also the day for the regular weekly report on U.S. unemployment benefit claims, which offers immediate data on the job market’s status.


Friday, April 26


The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision will set the tone for the day, following its previous shift away from negative interest rates and extensive quantitative easing. The market will be keen on any further policy adjustments or commentary from the BoJ president, which could signal shifts in Japan's economic strategy.


In Europe, less critical reports will surface, such as the March money supply statistics for the Eurozone, reflecting subtle shifts in financial conditions. The week's major macroeconomic release in the USA will be the report on incomes and expenditures for March, featuring the core PCE deflator—a key inflation metric favored by the Federal Reserve. The week concludes with the University of Michigan’s final April report on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations, offering insights into consumer attitudes which can influence economic outlooks and policy decisions.



Throughout the week, major corporations including GE, GM, Tesla, Amazon, and Chevron, among others, will release their quarterly financial statements. These reports provide key insights into not only the companies’ financial health but also broader economic trends in various sectors such as technology, automotive, energy, and consumer goods. These earnings reports are critical for investors and analysts who use this information to reassess their positions and forecasts for the economic future.


20.04.2024



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