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Global economic indicators and market events for February 12th-16th, 2024

Global economic indicators and market events for February

(London time)

Monday, February 12

In China, the celebration of the Lunar New Year begins. The Middle Kingdom will have a week-long holiday. This situation annually results in a temporary halt in economic activity in the world's second-largest economy. Chinese stock exchanges will also be closed. Additionally, Monday marks a national holiday in Japan.

Monday's macroeconomic calendar is not particularly voluminous. We will learn about January's CPI inflation in India (12:00) and the results of the US federal budget (19:00). Earnings season for the fourth quarter will continue on Wall Street, but it will be less intense than in previous weeks.

Tuesday, February 13

The day will begin with data from the British labor market (7:00), including wage statistics, unemployment rates, and unemployment benefit claims. Half an hour later, we will learn about CPI inflation in Switzerland, which returned to the inflation target (below 2%) in June 2023. 10:00 marks the publication of the ZEW index measuring the sentiment of German financiers.

However, the highlight of the day will come half an hour later (13:30), with the January reading of Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States. Without significant progress in this regard, there will be no talk of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Recall that for the previous six months, CPI inflation in the USA remained in the range of 3-4%, while the Fed's target is 2%.

Wednesday, February 14

Parliamentary and presidential elections will take place in Indonesia. The British will show the results of January's CPI inflation (7:00), which should finally drop to reasonably decent levels (i.e., below the 4% recorded in December). At the same time, we will also know the reading of Romanian CPI.

At 10:00, the first regular GDP readings for the European Union countries and the eurozone will be released concurrently with December's industrial production results.

Thursday, February 15

The day (and for us, still the night) will begin with the publication of Japan's GDP for the fourth quarter (at 23:50). Economists expect modest growth (0.3% qoq) after a 0.7% qoq decline in the previous quarter. The UK GDP statistics for the fourth quarter will be released at 7:00. A negative reading will indicate the occurrence of a so-called technical recession in the second-largest economy in Europe.

The rest of the morning will be marked by the publication of January's inflation statistics. Data from the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Spain will appear at 8:00.

From the United States, we will receive January's retail sales figures (13:30) as well as export and import prices. Also at the same time, the February business sentiment indices in New York and Philadelphia and the weekly report on the number of newly registered job seekers will be released. Then we have the statistics on US industrial production (14:15), developer sentiment (NAHB index, at 15:00), and unsold inventory (also at 15:00).

Wall Street's quarterly results will be shown by Applied Materials.

Friday, February 16

The day will be dominated by secondary reports from the USA. First, we will have the January reading of the Producer Price Index (PPI), as well as statistics on housing starts and building permits issued (all at 13:30). At the end of the day, we will receive speeches from further Federal Reserve officials (M. Barr at 14:10 and M. Daly at 17:10) and the final February reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (15:00). We traditionally close the week with data on the number of oil rigs in the USA (18:00).



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