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Global democracy at the crossroads: Navigating the electoral landscape of 2024

Global democracy at the crossroads

The approaching year of 2024 looms as a global electoral battleground, encompassing the participation of citizens from no fewer than 64 nations, representing nearly half of the world's populace, as highlighted by the editorial insight of "The Economist." A specter of considerable concern, as identified by this esteemed publication, is the potential resurgence of Donald Trump onto the world stage.

In the unfolding twelve months, a democratic tapestry will be woven across various geographical tiers, ranging from grassroots local elections to pivotal national decisions, in numerous corners of the globe.

Foremost among these global electoral phenomena are the anticipated November presidential elections in the United States. According to the discerning perspective of "The Economist," these elections loom as a harbinger of the "most significant threat to the world" — the prospect of a Donald Trump victory and his subsequent return to the presidential office. In Europe, the citizenry of all member states of the European Union is poised to exercise their electoral rights.

In June, an electorate of around 400 million across 27 countries will cast their votes to shape the composition of the new European Parliament. Notwithstanding, the Economist Intelligence Unit, the analytical hub of "The Economist," asserts that the paramount electoral drama on the Old Continent will unfold in the United Kingdom. Prognostications suggest that the long-standing Conservative rule, spanning the last 14 years, may be on the brink of yielding to a shift in power, with polls indicating a notable advantage for the Labour Party.

The Economist Intelligence Unit anticipates significant governmental shifts in at least four European nations. Analysts underscore a pivotal trend characterized by political fragmentation, as the task of constructing a stable majority becomes progressively formidable for governing bodies.

Elections are scheduled in an array of countries, including Finland, Portugal, Slovakia, Lithuania, Iceland, Belgium, Croatia, Austria, Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Romania.

Across Asia, the citizens of India, Indonesia, South Korea, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Taiwan, and the Solomon Islands are poised to participate in shaping their political landscapes. In India, where potentially a billion voters may wield their electoral influence, political observers posit that the incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are poised for a triumphant return.

In Indonesia, over 250 thousand candidates are gearing up for a competitive race for 20 thousand political positions across various levels (This is realy huuge). Bangladesh, boasting a voter base exceeding 119 million, witnesses the opposition's declaration of an election boycott.

In Mexico, a nation with close to a hundred million eligible voters, history might be made with the prospective election of Claudia Sheinbaum, a former mayor of Mexico City and a candidate from the ruling party, as the first female head of state.

Al Jazeera emphasizes the historic magnitude of these elections in Mexico, not only determining the presidency but also shaping the landscape of governors and local authorities. The nation is poised to fill a staggering 20 thousand positions in total!

On the African continent, where a third of the population is set to cast their votes, elections are scheduled across eighteen nations. Among them are countries that have grappled with coups, juxtaposed with those experiencing political inertia over decades. The latter includes South Africa, where the African National Congress (ANC) has maintained its grip since the post-apartheid era in 1994. However, signs of waning influence raise the prospect of a change in leadership, marking a departure from the era when Nelson Mandela became the first black president of South Africa.

Elections are also on the horizon in Rwanda, where Paul Kagame has held an undisputed grasp on power for three decades. Nevertheless, uncertainty lingers regarding any viable contenders, given that most of Kagame's adversaries find themselves either incarcerated or in exile, as observed by RFI.

Media outlets scrutinizing these impending elections are cautious not to cast the forthcoming months as an unbridled celebration of democracy. The Los Angeles Times provocatively raises the question of democracy's resilience in the face of this record-breaking electoral year. The newspaper underscores a disconcerting trend where democracy seems to be contracting across global regions, with polls indicating pervasive disillusionment, especially among the younger demographic.

The editorial perspective posits that elections, rather than fortifying faith in democracy, often yield insufficient positive changes, fostering frustration. They become tools exploited by authoritarian leaders to consolidate power, fracturing societies and, in extreme cases, even inspiring violence.

However, The Washington Post offers a nuanced observation, noting that even autocratic regimes orchestrating ostensibly unfair elections tacitly acknowledge the pivotal role of citizens' votes as the universally recognized source of political legitimacy.

The year 2024 has only just begun, but we already know that it will be full of important political events affecting many areas of reality. Let's remember about macro data and important political events that have a huge impact on the national/world economy. Being up to date, we will be able to predict price movements, whether of currencies or shares, more easily and accurately. Above all, stay informed! Information is money.


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