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German economic outlook: Modest improvement amid stagnation risks


German economic outlook, financial news

The German economy continues to face significant recession risks, although recent data suggest some improvement in business conditions. Despite these positive signs, the overall outlook for 2024 remains one of stagnation. Recent updates provide fresh forecasts and economic data for Germany, highlighting both the persistent challenges and the slight improvements observed in the economic landscape.


In April, the Ifo Institute’s Business Climate Index, a key indicator of economic health in Germany, reached 89.4 points. This figure, released on Wednesday, surpassed the consensus forecast, which had anticipated a slight increase to 88.9 points from March's 87.8 points. This uptick suggests a modest enhancement in business sentiment, reflecting perhaps a cautious optimism among German businesses.



Before the release of the April data, economists from JP Morgan expressed expectations of a notable improvement in the Ifo Index, albeit from a low base. They pointed out that the index remains significantly below the German Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), indicating that while there is improvement, it might not be strong enough to signify a robust economic recovery soon.


JP Morgan analysts also commented on the reliability of the PMI index as a more accurate predictor of GDP growth in Germany compared to the Ifo Index. They argued that any improvement in the Ifo would likely indicate a narrowing of the gap between these two indices rather than a clear signal of forthcoming strong GDP growth. Their focus remains on analyzing the PMI to gauge the health of the German economy more precisely.



The Ifo Business Climate Index is derived from surveys conducted among approximately 7,000 German firms, which assess both current business conditions and expectations for the next six months. The Ifo Institute compiles and processes this data, adjusting for seasonal variations, to produce a single comprehensive indicator of the business climate in Germany. This method ensures a balanced representation of the business sentiment across various sectors of the economy.


Economists at UniCredit had predicted a rise in the Ifo Index to 88.8 points in April. They anticipated this as the third consecutive increase and the highest level since May 2023, suggesting a steady recovery in business optimism. They expected a stronger rise in the future expectations component of the index compared to the assessment of current conditions, indicating that businesses might be feeling more confident about the medium-term economic outlook than the immediate future.


According to UniCredit experts, the fading of an overly pessimistic view across all sectors, coupled with an acceleration in global trade and reduced inflation leading to revived domestic demand, were likely the main drivers behind the improving business sentiment in Germany. However, they also noted that ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could dampen this optimism, potentially affecting the broader business environment.



Barclays economists have analyzed Germany's GDP performance for the first quarter of the year, concluding that it likely remained stagnant. They believe that, despite some positive indications from both soft data (like surveys) and hard data (like production figures), the overall economic activity did not show significant growth. This led them to adjust their GDP growth forecasts slightly, now expecting zero growth in the first quarter of 2024.


The European Commission, in its mid-February forecast, projected that Germany's real GDP would grow by only 0.3% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025. These modest growth projections reflect a cautious outlook on Germany's economic recovery, influenced by ongoing challenges and only gradual improvements in various economic indicators.



EC forecasters highlighted that sentiment indicators in the German economy had hit their lowest points since the pandemic crisis earlier in the year, suggesting persistent economic sluggishness. They attributed this to subdued investment activity, exacerbated by investor pessimism and ongoing labor shortages which hinder operational capacities.


The EC analysis also noted that while there is some easing in market financing conditions, which could support investment through more accessible bank lending, a significant recovery driven by trade is unlikely. Both export and import growth rates are expected to be subdued, and fiscal policy tightening could further constrain economic expansion. However, they also expect that improving real incomes, supported by a stable job market and increasing wages, could boost private consumption, providing a partial counterbalance to the more negative economic factors.


24.04.2024



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