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Fed officials cautious on inflation, signal NO rate cuts yet!


Fed officials cautious on inflation

Two senior officials from the Federal Reserve indicated on Monday that they are not yet prepared to declare that inflation trends are sustainably returning to the central bank's 2% target. This cautious stance is being taken despite the recent data showing a welcome reduction in consumer price pressures in April. The officials highlighted the complexity and uncertainty surrounding the current economic conditions, making it premature to conclude that the central bank's inflation goals are within reach. Their comments suggest a need for continued vigilance and careful assessment of ongoing economic developments before making any definitive policy shifts.


In a speech delivered at the Mortgage Bankers Association conference in New York, one of the officials, Jefferson, remarked, "It is too early to tell whether the recent slowdown in the disinflationary process will be long-lasting." He acknowledged that the better-than-expected inflation data for April was encouraging, providing some optimism that inflationary pressures might be easing. However, Jefferson emphasized the importance of not jumping to conclusions based on one month's data. He suggested that more sustained and consistent evidence is needed before the Federal Reserve can confidently assert that the disinflationary trend will continue.



Jefferson described the current monetary policy as restrictive and refrained from predicting whether rate cuts might begin this year. Instead, he emphasized that he, along with his colleagues, would closely monitor incoming economic data, evaluate the economic outlook, and balance the associated risks before making any decisions. This approach underscores the Fed's commitment to data-driven policymaking, where decisions are based on comprehensive analyses rather than speculative or premature judgments. By maintaining a cautious stance, the Fed aims to navigate the complex economic landscape effectively, ensuring that their actions are well-informed and measured.


Meanwhile, Michael Barr, who oversees the central bank's bank regulation efforts, spoke at a conference organized by the Atlanta Fed. Barr noted, "Inflation readings in the first quarter of this year were disappointing. These results did not provide me with the increased confidence that I was hoping to find to support easing monetary policy," he said in prepared remarks. Barr's comments reflect a sentiment of cautious disappointment, where the initial hopes for more favorable inflation readings were not met. This lack of confidence underscores the challenges the Fed faces in achieving its inflation targets and the necessity of maintaining a stringent monetary policy until clearer evidence of progress is observed.



Barr underscored the need to give the restrictive monetary policy more time to take effect, aligning with the Fed's broader message that anticipated rate cuts will remain on hold until there is clear evidence that inflation is on track to return to the Fed's 2% target. His remarks emphasize the Fed's strategic patience, indicating that while market participants might be eager for rate cuts, the central bank prioritizes long-term economic stability over short-term market reactions. This patient approach aims to ensure that any policy adjustments are sustainable and conducive to achieving the desired economic outcomes.


The data from last week, which showed consumer prices rising slower than expected in April and no increase in retail spending, offered some hopeful signs that the economy might be cooling off. This data was seen as a positive indicator that inflationary pressures could be easing, potentially bringing the economy closer to the Fed's inflation target. However, Fed policymakers remain cautious due to higher-than-expected inflation readings over the previous three months. They aim to ensure that pricing pressures are fully under control and on a path back to the 2% target before considering any reductions in the benchmark interest rate. This cautious approach reflects the Fed's commitment to not prematurely loosening monetary policy, which could risk reversing any progress made in controlling inflation.



Housing inflation has been particularly challenging for the Fed. Jefferson pointed out that price changes in a significant component of housing inflation, market rents, take a long time to influence the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, a key inflation gauge. He explained that the lag in the impact of market rents on existing rents complicates the inflation picture, making it harder to achieve a quick turnaround in housing inflation. This persistent elevation in housing services inflation underscores the need for patience and careful monitoring of housing market dynamics as the Fed works towards its inflation goals.


"This lag suggests that the large increase in market rents during the pandemic is still being passed through to existing rents and may keep housing services inflation elevated for a while longer," Jefferson explained. His analysis highlights the enduring effects of the pandemic on the housing market and the broader inflationary environment. The delayed transmission of higher market rents to existing rents means that housing inflation might remain a persistent issue, requiring sustained attention and action from policymakers.


The Fed's next policy meeting is scheduled for June 11-12. Currently, traders in contracts linked to the central bank's policy rate do not anticipate an interest rate cut until September. This expectation reflects the market's interpretation of the Fed's cautious stance on inflation and interest rates. The upcoming policy meeting will be closely watched for any signals or updates on the Fed's inflation outlook and potential policy adjustments. Market participants will be looking for guidance on how the Fed plans to navigate the current economic conditions and achieve its policy objectives.



Following his formal remarks, Jefferson expressed cautious optimism about the ongoing fight against inflation. "I am cautiously optimistic that we can continue our battle against inflation while permitting the economy to continue to grow and create more jobs," he said. He noted that growth and job creation have been resilient, providing some confidence that the Fed can manage to reduce price pressures without significantly hindering economic progress. This balanced view reflects the Fed's dual mandate of controlling inflation while supporting maximum employment. Jefferson's optimism suggests that, despite the challenges, there is hope for achieving these goals concurrently.


Jefferson also discussed the state of the Fed's balance sheet drawdown, mentioning the recent plans to slow its pace. This approach, he said, allows the balance sheet reduction process to unfold with a lower risk of causing financial market stress. He added that it is still uncertain how far the Fed needs to reduce its holdings. His comments on the balance sheet highlight the complexity of managing the Fed's assets in a way that supports its broader monetary policy goals without destabilizing financial markets. This careful management of the balance sheet is crucial for maintaining economic stability and achieving the Fed's long-term objectives.


20.05.2024



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