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Economic impacts on EUR/USD: Fed policy insights and market responses

Economic impacts on EUR/USD

On Tuesday, the US dollar experienced a downturn relative to a basket of major currencies, retracting from the nearly three-month pinnacle it had reached the day before. This shift occurred amidst robust data emerging from the US economy and a resolute stance adopted by officials of the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates, initially bolstering the dollar's position.

The ramifications of this shift are significant, particularly in the realm of EUR/USD quotations, which are closely monitored for their implications on global economic trends and investor sentiment.

Comments emanating from the Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, served to temper earlier market anticipations regarding significant and immediate rate cuts by the US central bank.

This recalibration of expectations is rooted in the robustness exhibited by the US economy and the judicious approach undertaken by the central bank concerning inflationary pressures and policy adjustments.

Powell's remarks provide a nuanced understanding of the Fed's approach, offering insights into the complex interplay between economic indicators and monetary policy decisions.

On Tuesday, Loretta Mester, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, hinted at the potential for rate cuts if economic conditions align with the Fed's forecasts. However, she refrained from specifying a definitive timeline for policy easing, citing ongoing uncertainties surrounding inflationary trends.

Mester's cautious approach underscores the delicate balance required in navigating the intricacies of monetary policy formulation amidst a backdrop of evolving economic dynamics.

Discussions surrounding the trajectory of the US dollar and Federal Reserve policies have reignited broader debates concerning economic resilience, a narrative that dominated discussions during the third quarter of 2023. This renewed focus underscores the significance of central bank communications and their impact on shaping market expectations and investor behavior.

Matthew Weller of highlighted the evolving sentiments among investors, signaling a shift in market dynamics. With participants now contemplating alternative scenarios, such as the possibility of a "non-landing" or a different economic outcome this year, there is a palpable sense of uncertainty permeating financial markets.

Market expectations, as reflected by the FedWatch tool of the CME Group, have undergone significant recalibration in recent days. The probability of a rate cut in March has dwindled to 19.5%, representing a stark departure from the 68.1% probability recorded at the outset of the year. This shift underscores the fluidity of market sentiment and the dynamic nature of economic forecasting.

George Saravelos of Deutsche Bank contends that the crux of the matter lies not merely in the timing of the Fed's policy adjustment but rather in the magnitude of easing relative to other central banks in the years ahead.

Saravelos and other analysts foresee a scenario wherein a less aggressive stance on easing by the Fed could potentially bolster the US dollar's position in global currency markets.

Meanwhile, the euro witnessed a modest uptick, buoyed by an unexpected surge in German industrial orders and a decline in inflation expectations across the eurozone.

This, coupled with the prospect of delayed rate cuts by the European Central Bank, underscores the nuanced interplay between economic data and currency movements.

Scotiabank analysts pointed out that declines in EUR/USD have plateaued around the lower 1.0700 region, with market sentiment signaling a potential rebound fueled by marginal gains in the euro, which could prompt investors to augment their short positions.

However, they noted that losses in the spot market have remained contained around 1.0725, with Fibonacci retracement support at 1.0712 offering a crucial level of reinforcement.

Analyzing the trend momentum, it becomes evident that the euro remains susceptible to downward pressure, with short-term indicators suggesting a looming risk of breaching the 1.0700 threshold and further depreciating towards 1.0600.

Any temporary reprieve may materialize if the spot manages to reclaim the 1.0770 level, signaling a potential shift in market dynamics and investor sentiment.

eurusd daily chart, forex analysis
EUR/USD daily chart, MetaTrader, 07.02.2024



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