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Breaking: ECB at arossroads - Turbulence ahead as rate cut debates heat up!


Turbulence ahead as rate cut debates

European Central Bank policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau has thrust the monetary policy discussion into the spotlight, signaling a potential shift in stance during the upcoming Governing Council meetings.


In an interview with La Tribune Dimanche, the French central banker confidently asserted that interest-rate cuts are looming on the horizon for the year. Villeroy emphasized the dynamic nature of the situation, stating that no specific date is excluded for these potential cuts, leaving all options open and subject to consideration in the forthcoming meetings as reported by Bloomberg.


The resonance of Villeroy's comments is particularly striking, coming just days after President Christine Lagarde expressed a consensus at the previous Governing Council meeting that it was premature to delve into discussions about rate cuts. This apparent discord sets the stage for a nuanced dialogue within the ECB.



Notably, this divergence is palpable in the contrasting viewpoints of policymakers like Klaas Knot of the Netherlands, who maintains that a turnaround in wages should precede any contemplation of reducing borrowing costs. Knot, reiterating his position in a Sunday TV interview, points to June as the earliest window for any potential policy recalibration.


The call for clarity on salary increases is not confined to Knot alone. Chief Economist Philip Lane, along with Madis Muller of Estonia and Bostjan Vasle of Slovenia, has underlined the crucial role of wage data in shaping monetary policy decisions.


Lane, in particular, has drawn attention to the Eurostat national accounts data, slated for release at the end of April, potentially missing the timing of the ECB's meeting in early April.



Nevertheless, Lane has nuanced his perspective, acknowledging the presence of other data points that are scrutinized on a weekly basis.


Within the camp advocating patience, voices such as Austrian central banker Robert Holzmann caution against anticipating any rate cuts this year, injecting a note of skepticism into the debate. Similarly, Martins Kazaks of Latvia and Boris Vujcic have sounded warnings against premature actions, emphasizing the need for prudence in decision-making.


Contrary to the cautious tone, Villeroy argues that excessive delay could expose the ECB to risks. He highlights the delicate balance between the dangers of cutting too soon and missing targets and the perils of acting too late, leading to an unwarranted slowdown in economic activity.

Villeroy finds support among certain ECB members who share a more proactive stance.


Portugal’s Mario Centeno hints that a move could materialize before May, injecting a sense of urgency into the discussion. Gediminas Simkus expresses openness to an April step, contingent on the data that unfolds in the interim.



Investor sentiment appears to align with Villeroy's perspective, as money markets indicate a nearly 90% probability of a quarter-point rate cut by April. The broader expectation encompasses a total easing of 146 basis points throughout the year, reflecting a cautious optimism prevalent in financial markets.


Looking ahead, the upcoming week promises further insights into the ECB's internal dynamics, with half a dozen policymakers scheduled to express their views. Vice President Luis de Guindos is set to kick off the discussions on Monday, followed by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, Philip Lane, Boris Vujcic, and Bostjan Vasle on Tuesday. Mario Centeno will continue the discourse on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.


Lane's subsequent appearance on Thursday, timed closely after the likely release of data indicating a slowdown in euro-zone inflation to 2.7% in January, adds an intriguing layer to the unfolding narrative. The cacophony of diverse opinions and the interplay of various data points will undoubtedly contribute to the ongoing debate within the ECB.


29.01.2024



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